Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.034059 0.038781 0.043945 0.050017 0.056966 0.064676 0.073889
2025-02-02 0.027288 0.033856 0.041699 0.051774 0.064403 0.079750 0.099875
2025-02-09 0.023682 0.031129 0.040566 0.053440 0.070613 0.092826 0.123890
2025-02-16 0.020438 0.028150 0.038402 0.053091 0.073708 0.101775 0.143163
2025-02-23 0.018184 0.026076 0.037013 0.053364 0.077353 0.111506 0.164267
2025-03-02 0.016102 0.023928 0.035179 0.052647 0.079303 0.118801 0.182419
2025-03-09 0.014861 0.022821 0.034657 0.053689 0.083814 0.130143 0.207726
2025-03-16 0.013432 0.021250 0.033239 0.053139 0.085708 0.137531 0.227475
2025-03-23 0.012705 0.020679 0.033273 0.054826 0.091251 0.151141 0.258743
2025-03-30 0.011373 0.018990 0.031343 0.053073 0.090879 0.154912 0.273628
2025-04-06 0.010405 0.017803 0.030109 0.052332 0.092087 0.161372 0.293769
2025-04-13 0.009339 0.016343 0.028270 0.050345 0.090871 0.163407 0.305996
2025-04-20 0.008996 0.016130 0.028587 0.052260 0.096950 0.179277 0.346151
2025-04-27 0.008659 0.015896 0.028847 0.054099 0.103092 0.195923 0.389842
2025-05-04 0.008336 0.015652 0.029055 0.055843 0.109198 0.213082 0.436492
2025-05-11 0.007764 0.014885 0.028217 0.055478 0.111116 0.222213 0.467697
2025-05-18 0.007327 0.014336 0.027738 0.055764 0.114345 0.234254 0.506372
2025-05-25 0.006811 0.013583 0.026795 0.055013 0.115343 0.241770 0.536039
2025-06-01 0.006540 0.013297 0.026750 0.056104 0.120320 0.258142 0.587322
2025-06-08 0.006120 0.012669 0.025955 0.055528 0.121624 0.266685 0.621634
2025-06-15 0.005959 0.012567 0.026235 0.057294 0.128269 0.287692 0.687719
2025-06-22 0.005482 0.011750 0.024939 0.055460 0.126582 0.289641 0.708002
2025-06-29 0.005136 0.011190 0.024148 0.054684 0.127251 0.297077 0.742663